Predicting the Housing Market

It’s Like Clockwork (but without the batteries)

The Clock Without Batteries

I have a charming tabletop clock. I bought it because I thought it would look nice in my living room (that place no one goes except to dust), and I was right. Shortly after bringing it home and placing it proudly on the end table, I made a mental note to put batteries in it. It seems that it operates quite nicely as a decorator item on solar power alone; to operate as a time-telling device, however, requires some external help. I never did.

Occasionally, though, I still find myself glancing at the clock, when I breeze through looking for my husband’s car keys or my missing brisket. I can’t help myself. And when I do, I am reminded it is 10:47. It is always 10:47, but it rarely is. Approximately twice a day, I can count on my clock to be correct, and when that happens, it is an exciting moment. “What a great clock! So precise!”

The reality, though, is that my little temporal barometer hasn’t a clue. I know this, but I still look at it, paying attention to what it has to say every time I pass by. It’s become a game of sorts, watching and waiting for that inevitable moment of accuracy. I have found that I don’t really need the clock to sort of know what time it is. I can look outside the window and get a pretty good idea. If the sun is high in the sky, it’s noonish. If it is low and to the east, it is early morning. And if it’s dark, it’s time to hole up until the sun comes out again, which it always does – like clockwork. But even my method of watching the skies is flawed. When it is cloudy, when a storm is brewing, I’m screwed.

Storms are funny things. You can never really know how much rainfall you will get or when it might end. What starts as a light mist can become a downpour, or things might clear up quickly. Having sold my Doppler device at a garage sale years ago, I have to rely on my instincts — and on the weather reports. Unfortunately, weather reports are rarely precise. A 20% chance of rain means there is an 80% chance it won’t.

A Chance of Continued Showers

So back to the other AG and what I think of his latest prediction about the housing market recovery. It is raining cats and dogs at the moment. No one knows how long it will last or how bad it will get before we see blue skies again and, until we do, no one can accurately predict the time. Alan Greenspan is a lot like my stopped clock. He will be right at some point. Is he right now? It’s hard for me to say. I am still getting storm warnings.

PHOTO CREDIT: https://www.flickr.com/photos/thomasjleonard/