A 16% recovery after 2010
With the commercial real estate sector being among the hardest hit this year with tighter lending and rising vacancy rates, speculators are trying their hand at looking into the proverbial crystal ball and one firm, Maximus Advisors has stated firmly that 2010 will be the year commercial real estate hits bottom and starts to “claw back a third or more of their lost valuations over three years” and that apartment, retail and office buildings would “get a recovery pop of more than 16% after 2010.”
The bounce will be minor in comparison to recession rebound periods of the past, but with falling rents, rising inventory levels and loan defaults make a recovery in the $6 trillion market hard to fathom, but the white flag is being waved for investors who have held out hoping for more distressed properties to choose from.
Indiana Commercial Real Estate Broker, Duke Long said, “in my market, employment (or lack thereof) is the number one factor for recovery. What makes the difference locally is the University stability managed growth and consistent vacancy which has made the market not quite strong, yet still attractive to investors.”
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Oh come on, they’re killing themselves by holding on to yesterdays market, price it right and you might catch the deals recessions tenants are hunting for. On Friday I talked to one business that is seeking larger offices only to be told higher prices are to be expected, and thats exactly what they found, even on older property. I know it ain’t that simple, but the definition of sitting inventory is a starving investment. Apartment communities learned this lesson long ago, it’s time commercial space got in the game too. Simple or not, it’s reality.
yeah,Commercial properties getting clobbered these days are apt to hit bottom in 2010 and then claw back a third or more of their lost value over three years.